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  1. #1
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    Exclamation lifeaftertheoilcrash



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  3. #2
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    I guess we will just have to live like the Flintstones
    On a more serious note I have no comment on the apocalypse.

    EDIT: But thank you for the link
    Last edited by Mezz DeJé; March 25th, 2004 at 09:13 PM.
    And all you can do is laugh

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    Maybe I'm just as naive as the rest of the world, but I'm inclined to believe that this will either not happen at all or if it does happen it will take place with far less severe results. If this did in fact begin to take effect in 2000, then that means we could be 5-10 years away from another "great depression" and 10-20 years away from the initial stages of the collapse of society. I don't care how the brains behind the Peak Oil theory lay it out... that just seems impossible.

    And even if it is going to happen, I'll not going to take the alarmist stance like the guy who wrote that page. He reads some stuff about Peak Oil and he's questioning his law career, his family plans, everything about his life? Let's all wait a little longer before we start duct-taping plastic to the windows and digging the bomb shelters in the back yard...


  5. #4
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    bring it.
    There was much rejoicing in the realm of the Harvest Gods when man created the beer, light could not penetrate.

  6. #5
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    I like driving gas guzzlers because I'll help deplete oil sources. Time to make new fuels cheaper.

  7. #6
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    I thought we were talking about lubricants?

  8. #7
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    The thing that people like this guy website there overlook constantly is that the general population as a whole is very resourceful.

    Assuming a worst case senario where-in everything initially collapses because we didn't see it coming and a world state of chaos and anarchy ensue (a highly unlikely senario IMHO), this would only last for a short period of time. Other transporation methods would soon be in place to fill the void left by oil. At first this would be a patchwork quilt of different ideas but over time would filter out to the few most efficent modes of transportation.

    Another minor point that he and his ilk overlooks is that human society has been without the dependency on oil for the better part of its' history. And guess what? People got around. A lot, and all over the place.

    At worst, we'd be back to horse drawn carriges, steam and windpower. So what? We'd still have electricity. We'd still have the 'net and all of our accumulated knowelge.

    His line about civilazation coming to end is laughable. It would take something far, far worse than running out of decomposed dino's to bring down our civilazation. And, if our civilization could collapse so easily, than it has no business existing at all.

    Any civilization has to be adaptable and has to be able to accomate all sorts of unforseen disasters. The larger and more diverse the society, the better chance for an adaptation to any given situation is take place.

    In my view, this guy is a fringe nut-job. Too much subjectivity and not enough objectivity.

    That said, yeah, there is reason to for concern, but not panic. The end of the world isn't here yet. It's just yet another pot hole in history.

    Cheers,
    ~Oreg.

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  9. #8
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    I found it interesting that he kept talking about running out of oil when Peak Oil theory doesn't really say anything about running out of oil. It says that oil supply will be passed up by demand. Yes that would cause a depression and gas prices would go through the roof BUT... we'd still have gas, meaning we could still have food being transported. Also if gas prices go through the roof because of supply and demand, the oil companies profits go through the roof. Then it comes down to, is our government capable of changing to more fairly redistribute that wealth, Am I wrong here? Because I don't know what the fxck I'm talking about.

  10. #9
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    Here's something else to consider:

    If the supply of oil deminishes, and prices skyrocket, the demand will also deminish. Though, not necessarily in tandem with the dwindling supply. At least, not at first. Demand *will* deminish as alternative energy/fuel sources mulitply and become increasingly accessable as they are beginning to now.

    'nuf said.

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  11. #10
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    Just a little piece of info I learned from watching the news tonight. Gas supply is actually adequate, what isn't is gas refineries. Apparently demand for gas has gone up in the last 20 years or so, but not a single new refinery has been created since the 1980s. Infact some refineries have been closed because of environmental safety concerns. Nobody wants to open a new refinery because it costs too much money because to build one with the safety concerns taken care of is expensive. The dilemna lies more so in the "middle man" or refinery area of the industry than the big gas companies or gas stations. A little tid-bit

  12. #11
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    It's not even a matter of discovering new sources of sustainable fuel, they exist right now. As a freshman in Highschool a good friend's father worked for a company that was trying to secure contracts to produce a form of fuel using water as the base which emitted oxygen instead of polution as waste, and was very cheap to produce. I once had a tour of his facility and we saw this alternate fuel power a range of items, a converted deisel truck, a high temperature welding device and several other things. Aparently cars driven on fossil fuel could be converted to use this new fuel for some thousand dollars ($5000? I don't remember the exact number). That was awhile ago, and unfortunately I didn't understand much of the chemistry that was explained at the time and now my memory has faded so I don't even want to try to explain how it worked, I would probably get it very wrong. The point is that my friend's dad was having alot of trouble because he couldn't get any investors fund factories to produce this fuel or to distribute it. Simply, no one with enough kahunas behind them to get the project going was about to invest. The forumla exists though, and I am sure there are many other viable alternate power sources invented, just not currently in use.

    I would think that if gas "runs out" or becomes extreemly rare so that prices go through the roof, simple supply and demand will step in. Oil companies can only raise the price so much before the demand drops, even if they are making $6 a gallon, if the price is too high people will not buy enough for them to make a profit. If oil becomes that rare, all of a sudden people with money to invest are going to be very, very interested in other fuels. Car companies will want to invest in fuel types as well, and will probably be eager to try manufacturing cars outfitted to run on alternate fuel sources, rather than go out of business.

    Of course, I am not a big believer in the goodwill (or honestly, even the sanity!) of people in power or big companies, so I can see where there is a possibility for things to go very badly. I think "end of civilization" type predictions go a bit far. Solutions exist, if the world is heading for complete chaos and poverty, they will be used. People with money and power don't want to end up poor living in caves, either!

  13. #12
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    Lightbulb

    YYYEsss!!!

    COLD FUSION! HERE WE COME!!!

    -Joshua

  14. #13
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    Hmm...

    We aren't runnin out of Steam any time soon...


    ENTER THE STEAMPUNK!!!

    That shite would be DOPE!

    -Joshua

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    You guys are completely overlooking methane. Will have big stockpiles of pig crap and Tina Turner can be our president.

  16. #15
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    Somthing I will never understand: Iraqi / middle east involvement is all about the oil. Now if we had a president that would put as much money and make a huge effort to devlope an alternative energy source besides nuclear...we wouldn't give a rats ass about those midevil countries out there. We would stay the hell outta there, the terrorist would leave us alone and only 3rd world countries would buy the black shit from them.
    Hell, Kennedy said we were going to put a man on the moon...why can't we just say we are going to make this world independent of oil?

    The US has moved mountains before, this energy issue would be easy.

    The only reason I can think of why we are positioning ourselves politically and militarily for the last drop of oil, is to make all the rich ass Big oil executives happy. This makes me sick.
    "If one advances confidently in the direction of
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  17. #16
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    Not to turn this into a political discussion, but one of the main reasons that the U.S. is in Iraq is because almost all of the head administrative figures in Washitngton have financial interests in the Oil industry. Cheney was chairman or president of Haliburton (I don't remember which), and incidently, Haliburton was awarded one of the largest (if not THE largest) contract for post war reconstruction in Iraq.

    Incidently, some interesting info regarding the Bush camp and Saudi connections can be found here: http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/conspiracytheories/saudi.html
    The only reason that I site it is because I saw the program and it wasn't just a bunch of knee-jerk reactionism. It was a very critical look at the connections between the Bush family and the middle east and the events that followed 9/11. They also debunked a bunch of nonsense crap as well.

    Anyway, I think I've driven this far enough off topic, but it's hard not to say "Oil" and "Bush" in the same sentence...

    Cheers,
    ~Oreg.

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  18. #17
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    Its a damn shame we got Saddam, because people can't say "...and we didn't even catch Saddam!" now.

    Then when we hand over the country to a provisional government at the end of june, people won't be able to say "...and we've got the nerve to occupy them!"

    :ranting:

    about the original post though...that guy is nuts. before people start paying 7 bucks a gallon, they'll start riding bikes, or taking the bus, plain and simple. There are ways around driving, most people just don't want to use 'em, and those that will will do it alot more conservatively.

    glad to see mcotie post too, seemed he had dissapeared for a while. that cracked me up.

  19. #18
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    THEY'VE DISCOVERED OIL IN THE FUTURE?!

    HOW?!


    good points, Jens.

  20. #19
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    I think the biggest flaw with the chart is that it is based on Exxon findings, if you take my meaning.

    Cynical comments aside, I agree that they project a rather bleak outlook for furture discoveries. But they may be trying to be conservative in order to be prepared for the worst, should it come. Prognostication is always a tricky game.

    And, yes, there is a lot of reserve. Think about how much the U.S. has, and we're not even a major source of oil. Now, think about how large a reserve Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries have that are major producers. Though, I'm pretty well positive that any reserve that Iraq *had* has either been destroyed by the conflict or confiscated as spOils of war.

    I just don't see that oil depletion is going to hit the world like a sneaky left hook.

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  21. #20
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    I'm almost looking forward to it. Imagine if gas was $7 a gallon – no more driving to work! The Home Office would be a necessity and not just a perk that some professions get.

    As far as the accuracy of the graph, the future results are just assumed from a natural curve drawn from the peak in 1975, through the next peak and on through the future. Also notice that those peaks directly correspond to outside influences in the oil flow (specifically, the OPEC embargo and the Gulf War). Naturally, those years would be peak exploration years because the normal flow of oil was interrupted.

    I think the real problem with the scenario they present is that, while the stats are somewhat conservative, they're starting from a very extreme position – that we have already used up the vast majority of the oil on earth. There's no way at all to prove whether that's true or not.

    One thing's for sure – it's definitely time to seriously explore some alternatives.

  22. #21
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    Relax, in 20 years time we will all drive around with these humongous Joint European Torus-style fusionreactors installed in our 50 foot monstervehicles/mobile homes. Imagine the paintjob on those!

    OR

    I'll buy a bunker since oilhungry invaders will come. Funny thing. There was this radioplay that was supposed to start the month after 911, that was "delayed" a bit. I dunno why exactly. I heard some of it a few months later, it was a play about a terrorist attack at the US embassy in Norway leading to an american Invasion of the country, where the americans, you've guessed it, takes our oil! And this was way before the invasion of Iraq. I wonder... Norway licks so much US butt nowadays maybe because Norway is the 3rd most oilproducing country in the world, trying to be friendly so as not to be fucked in the ass later...didnt work for Saddam, did it?!?

    I hear german bunkers are good. Saddam had a german one. heh. These dictators sure understand the quality of german bunkers...

    Seriously, Volvo's can be built to run on soya-oil easily. And its sometimes cheaper depending on oilprice.
    Waster

    "I used to think that my brain was the most beautiful organ in my body... Then I realized who was telling me this."

  23. #22
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    Check this out -
    Vegetable Oil Engine

    The Diesel engine was originally invented to run off of organic plant oils. After the inventor's "Untimely" demise the engine was converted to run off of Petro based fuels.

    This summer I may SERIOUSLY convert a diesel to an SVO engine.
    To be nobody-but-yourself -- in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else -- means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting.

  24. #23
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    Originally posted by Velo
    It's not even a matter of discovering new sources of sustainable fuel, they exist right now. As a freshman in Highschool a good friend's father worked for a company that was trying to secure contracts to produce a form of fuel using water as the base which emitted oxygen instead of polution as waste, and was very cheap to produce. I once had a tour of his facility and we saw this alternate fuel power a range of items, a converted deisel truck, a high temperature welding device and several other things.
    Keep in mind however, that in order to produce hydrogen and oxygen from water (which can be burnt to create water, H (hydrogen) + 02 (oxygen) = H20) you need energy as well. For which they use electric energy which at the moment still comes from a majority of petrol based powerplants in Europe. I believe only 5% of the total amount of electric energy comes from nuclear reactors.
    So at the moment that would not be much more environmentfriendly.

    2c
    Veni, vidi, vici.

  25. #24
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    Originally posted by JOSHUATHEJAMES
    YYYEsss!!!

    COLD FUSION! HERE WE COME!!!

    -Joshua

    too bad the leading researcher for cold fusion was murdered recently.

    hmmmm....consipiracy time?

  26. #25
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    Couple of minor things to add. I have heard of this before, back when I read the Hydrogen Economy. Personally, I feel he may be over-stating things a bit, but it is definitely more serious than most people think. One of the major growth-factors of the 20th century was the automobile, which allowed people to start working farther from home, because now they could commute. This coming shortage would definitely impact that. Someone mentioned telecommuting, but that would become more difficult as well, because the internet is reliant on fossil fuels as well (because there isn't an internet without electricity).

    One of the things I think a lot of people are missing, is that while we do have reserves and oil production will continue, oil demand continues to increase, meaning that if it took us about 100 years to reach the "peak"(beginning of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st), it might take much less than half that to reach the bottom. And as he mentions, almost all alternatives are petrol-derived or dependant on petrol in some way.

    Also mass-transit might alleviate things a bit, those same mass transit systems are dependant on oil as well, thus the prices would begin to escalate on them as well. Anyway, that's all my ranting for now.

    But my first thought was along the same lines as Joshua's : I'm looking forward to some steampunk

    Edit: Also, joesluscher was asking about the whole production vs demand thing, but that isn't what the Oil Peak is, the Oil Peak is when we we reach the midpoint of oil that can be taken out of the ground, meaning half of the oil that existed has been consumed.
    Last edited by SeraphSword; May 30th, 2004 at 08:12 PM.

  27. #26
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    mcotie: hilarious

    joeslucher: that first post - your argument is like some funky scifi black hole. It looks fancy cool from a distance, but the closer you get the more you realise its about to collapse on itself...o i dont know what the fcuk im talking about

    Velo: the "forumla" exists eh? You spend too much time on CA

    JtJ: awww....hell.......yeha!

    Jens: insightful ideas.

    Jason: really? Could you please link me to any info on that? sometimes i find myself dangerously out of sync with world events, and would personally like to get back in the loop!



    MY OWN THOUGHTS:

    Well i found out about all this today as many of you did. When something that perks my attention comes along i usually get very involved in my research of it for a few days to see what i can dig up. It the same time today i was doing tandem research into a guy named John Titor who was spoken of in another thread here.

    While after reading the entire archived conversations that Titor had on the relevant BBS, my own opinion is undecided. I think it is ignorant to lean towards either belief or skepticism without proof (my own ideology).

    What i do feel though - instinctively and logically - is that the world is definately heating up. Something will happen. Oil supplies WILL eventually dry up, its irrefutable. Wars will occur, many things will happen. But then many things have always happened. The impact on our world is dependant on an infinite number of variables.

    Each variable can massively effect the outcome of any predicted events (consider a malfunctioning bomg in a nuclear war - the implications a minor error, a loose wire, could make - a bomb detonates at altitude resulting in less casualties, but widespread technological destruction due to emp - the examples are limitless and obvious).

    What im saying is that we really cant hope to predict figures - years, amounts and so on. Certain things we know WILL happen. How can we presume to change the course of these things happening?



    My opinion personally is that I find my life to be fulfilling thanks to my art. I mean come on people, we are artists - the people of ideas. If anyone is to find resourcefulness, inspiration and happiness in places that seem most devoid of it i think its us!

    Personally if theres nothing that can be done about a nuclear war, oil decline etc etc etc, i may as well go along for the ride and contribute to my experience as a human being. If our lifetimes are so short, i believe the more out - of - the norm an experience the better.

    I will take everything that happens as an experience - something that adds to my consciousness as a human being. No doubt i will stitch my shetchbook to my body if need be - i will draw through any war, any depression, anything the world can throw at me. And if i draw every day and come to terms with my own life's experiences i think i can one day pass away in happiness and satisfaction.

    Hope i havnt rambled too long. Just a condensed and unedited recount of todays thoughts.

    Night - F



    *PS i was just informed of an interesting tidbit for you Jason (you wanted conspiracy theories right?).

    Open up hotmail and send an email to yourself with the subject Assasinate Bush. Then send one with the subject Hello (or some such). The one that says hello will arrive first.

    We are being watched :evilbat:

  28. #27
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    and a brief reply to seraphsword re telecommuting:

    i believe it is quite possible to operate a home on solar energy. The main problems with fossil fuel are transport and mass production - if we could grow our own food, and provide our own electricity via renewable PERSONAL energy sources then things like the internet COULD function.

    Electricity is not the problem - cars dont run on electricity - they run on fuel. The problem with the internet (and solar energy) would be the mass production of the components needed - which would consume fossil fuels. Not the actual operation of such systems.

    Maybe? someone got an opinion on that?

  29. #28
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    Holy Shit!
    How about this for an alternative fuel:
    http://www.gettingit.com/article/105

  30. #29
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    Form, thanks for your post. It was very refreshing to read something that so closely reflects my own personal thoughts on the matter.

    Cheers,
    ~Oreg.

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