Anyone else worried about the Economy lately?
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Thread: Anyone else worried about the Economy lately?

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    Anyone else worried about the Economy lately?

    So the Economist is already saying we're in the worst crisis since the 30's, and we're likely to see more bankruptcies and government bailouts soon.

    Lehmans went bankrupt (I'm still curious what that means to the thousands of people who had money entrusted to them). AIG just got taken over by the Federal Reserve.

    Does anyone have an expert opinion on what's gonna happen next, and just how bad this is gonna get? Are we expecting food lines anytime soon?

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    Zaxser is offline Steph Laberis Fanboy Level 6 Gladiator: Provocator
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    Quote Originally Posted by TASmith View Post
    So the Economist is already saying we're in the worst crisis since the 30's, and we're likely to see more bankruptcies and government bailouts soon.
    Methinks that a little overstated, but Cavuto's been talking about a slow down in the US economy, similiar to japan during the 90s. No one has a crystal ball. The only way to improve our economy is to reform our economy; they're called corrections for a reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by TASmith View Post
    Lehmans went bankrupt (I'm still curious what that means to the thousands of people who had money entrusted to them). AIG just got taken over by the Federal Reserve.
    Different things could happen, but ideally the companies assets will be liquidized and divided among the stockholders as dividends.

    When a bank closes, patrons of a bank are insured by the federal government for up to 300,000 dollars. If they heve significantly more than that, they might get screwed over, but I imagine there are other ways to insure your money.

    Quote Originally Posted by TASmith View Post
    Does anyone have an expert opinion on what's gonna happen next, and just how bad this is gonna get? Are we expecting food lines anytime soon?
    No one has a crystal ball.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TASmith View Post
    So the Economist is already saying we're in the worst crisis since the 30's, and we're likely to see more bankruptcies and government bailouts soon.

    Lehmans went bankrupt (I'm still curious what that means to the thousands of people who had money entrusted to them). AIG just got taken over by the Federal Reserve.

    Does anyone have an expert opinion on what's gonna happen next, and just how bad this is gonna get? Are we expecting food lines anytime soon?
    Smith. I thought we talked about this? Perhaps not, but I remember us talking about the direction of the downfall and the effects it could have somewhere.

    I think with the market bouncing back with every take-over, it could set a new trend(A dangerous one at that) where people start to highly favor the govt. take-overs as it seems to help Wall St. I expect a more powerful Federal Reserve system, many mergers, and a lot of low-end deals at the very top.

    It happened in the 30's, and I bet we will see it again. No one knows how bad it can get, and the reason many are finally listening to the down-siders is because a lot of these crashes are happening at once and people have been saying this would happen for a mad minute.

    I'm not even sure if we will reach the point our families did in the 30's, but I can see it. I wouldn't go panicking. I recommend being safe with your money and having some hard assets. Precious metals are a good thing to have anyway, even if things get sunny in a heartbeat.

    It's smart, safe, and will accumulate value over time. Right now is a good time to buy anyway.

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    I think it probably will get worse. It's like a domino effect...if one falls, it takes others with it. The government can only do so much, and they are in debt themselves. I could be wrong, but this is probably a good time to get prepared. Stock up on food and guns!!!!

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    i reckon the goverment will become more nad more involved with the major corporations and buisness(the reserve system is the major stockholder for AIG now...) that sooner or later the US will become far more of a socialist country... for better or worse

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    I've worried enough over this in the past year that after trying to spread the word for so long, I gotta take a break. Everyone has seen this coming for so long, but the bulls have been shouting us down and they still don't wish to correct fundamental issues. But what do I know.. I DONT KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT ECONOMICS as kev would say.

    Who is the government to be buying up these mega corps.. When I heard the news last night, I was coincidentally in traffic behind a guy with a license plate that read "FA-CSM" with the "United We Stand" license plate.

    If shit goes south in a bad way, I'm prepared for it.. maybe not as much as I should be, but I'm ready to go survivorman if necessary.. and thats about as much as I can afford to worry about such things for now. Got business to take care of and as long as the machine is still running you gotta keep running around on the rat wheel.

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    kev ferrara is offline Registered User Level 17 Gladiator: Spartacus' Dimachaeri
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    The fundamental issues were very long in the making and have very little to do with Bulls and Bears and a lot to do with banks, both willingly with credit cards, and forcibly with home loans, lending money to high risk borrowers. With the burst tech bubble at end of the 90s and then 9/11, the downturn of the economy showed just how vulnerable all those weak loans had made our monetary institutions. So the institutions set about trying to fix the problem. And one of the ways they did that is to filter bunches of those crummy loans back through wall street as "bundled securities" as a way for the banks to pawn off their bad debt on gullible stock-market players. Whenever large amounts of junk enters the financials, you get serious hiccups.

    Like a bad virus, this "junk" has to work its way through the system before we can get up out of bed.

    The rising price of oil has made it tougher for us to rebound. Anything that lowers the price of oil will be a good thing, in my opinion, until we get over this thing.

    Only people who want free markets to fail actually predict they will. Everybody, it seems to me, assumes we'll get over this. The world doesn't have much of a choice. We're all tied up in this thing together. Beijing, Germany, Britain, Tokyo.... all of us. The question is how long. Clearly, this has already affected the livelihood of millions and will continue to do so. If that isn't a cause for concern, I don't know what is. But worry and panic will make things much much worse, so anything that can keep hysteria in check is a good thing.

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    Last edited by kev ferrara; September 18th, 2008 at 10:16 AM.
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    I hear ya Kev, I sure hope we pull through this mess with minimal problems. Not sure how much we will have to go through yet but hopefully we all pull through and can move forward before too long without catastrophe.

    cheers

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    ... and then Canada will buy you out, everyone will be happy.

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    I think it's funny that the US is becoming just as socialist as China buy buying out the banks. Also Washington Mutual is under scrutiny now for those junk loans: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...G0AAdko5GvCn8w

    Let's also keep in mind that it wasn't just sub prime ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) loans but Alt A Loans. The Alt A loans meant you didn't really have to declare an income and like if you picked tomatoes in the field you can get a half a million dollar home by declaring yourself a "Agricultural Engineer"

    It's like two poles The Rich and Greedy and The Poor And Greedy met and screwed over the middle class. Just because it's an American Dream to own a home doesn't equate to entitlement.

    I suppose the only good thing is that the markets can't crash like the 30's because they shut down the market if it hits a certain threshold.

    So people went from one money scheme to the next: The dot coms to "Everyone should get a home!"

    This is just another lesson on "stop spending money on shit you can't afford, and stop selling it to people who you know can't afford it".

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    Blaming the poor for wanting something whose ownership has been a cultural ideal for...well really as long as America has existed seems a little misplaced. Initially, I believe only land-owners could even vote. Obviously the Alt A loans were a total mistake, but they were being made with the knowledge that they were not safe by the lenders who only intended on offloading it onto some other securities investor. Is wanting to own a house really greedy? The loans had to be so great because the property values had skyrocketed, supposedly because of investor speculation. So the wealthy gamed the system to get richer and the middle and lower classes got caught in the wake.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cthogua View Post
    Is wanting to own a house really greedy?
    Is wanting to own a home greedy? NO because that's not the argument.
    I want a lot of things. I'd love a cintiq, my own art studio, an Acura Integra, a home and the list goes on and on.

    Is not doing the math and buying crap you can't afford such as a home greedy? - YES there has to be some accountability. Being poor is not an excuse.

    I do not buy the above things because I couldn't afford it, and I don't believe I should take a loan out on stuff I know I can't pay back. But see, that's why I do the math.

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    kev:
    "Whenever large amounts of junk enters the financials, you get serious hiccups."

    What I'm most concerned with is how far this is going to spiral before it ends, and how to best regulate these crucial financial institutions. Anyone hear of the Glass-Steagall act that was repealed by Clinton? Apparently it was what forbid banks to repackage bad loans as securities. Any opinions on this?

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    its gonna get bad before it gets worse.

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    Well, a lot of people are saying that all this government intervention makes us closer to a socialist state. Maybe capitalism is fundamentally flawed in itself, and all of these problems were inevitable. You might say, they weren't inevitable, its just a whole lot of incompetent bankers borrowing too much money and a lot of flawed economic concepts and bad governing, but what if all of those things have to happen whenever you have capitalism?

    I mean, we like to make our economy look stronger than it is. If you measure the strength of an economy with government spending and commercial spending, then you can just start a war to raise government spending, maybe raise gas prices to boost commercial spending, since no one can really go without gas anymore. Not to mention the fact that banks borrow some multiple of the money they have, so they have even more money when they're doing well, and even less when they're not. (This is just my oversimplified view of leverage, though. I'd like to see what a real economist says about it.) That's a big contributor to so many of them going bankrupt now. There was some article in Newsweek or something I read in a dentist's office, that covered all of this pretty well, but "leverage" is the word to look for.

    Now yes, we mishandle credit all over the place, we the citizens who don't own banks, and yes it's handled badly by the government. I heard about this guy that barely speaks English and only gets by on a part time job getting this huge loan to buy a house, a loan that he shouldn't have technically qualified for based on income. That guy got screwed over hard, and he didn't know what he was getting into, so that's not his fault.

    I think we can agree we need tighter government regulation on banks, anyway. Anything that you can get a loan for, anything involving any kind of bank or broker or whatever. Or maybe not. Maybe someone here knows economics? (It's definitely not me.)

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    Well I would say that for most people a home rates a bit higher than fancy computer peripherals or nice cars in priority as well as cost. (obviously not for everyone, I have seen a Corvette parked out in front of a single wide trailer) 500K for a 2 bedroom starter home in SoCal...

    Don't get me wrong, I haven't purchased a house either and by the looks of it probably never will be able to...stagnant salary, 60K in school loans, and a collapsing lending industry. I suppose it comes down to some kind of a morality question...Who is at fault the predatory lender or the gullible borrower? Obviously accountability for action is important, and that in some ways implicates the borrower, however if you dig a trap for someone is it their fault for falling in? Are soldiers at fault for not being on point enough to not step on a landmine? If you think so than I would venture to say that opinion is a wild oversimplification that doesn't take into account anything other than the observer.

    Now some people are attempting to use the foreclosure of peoples homes as a means to disqualify their eligibility to vote.

    The Macomb GOP’s plans are another indication of how John McCain’s campaign stands to benefit from the burgeoning number of foreclosures in the state. McCain’s regional headquarters are housed in the office building of foreclosure specialists Trott & Trott. The firm’s founder, David A. Trott, has raised between $100,000 and $250,000 for the Republican nominee.

    The Macomb County party’s plans to challenge voters who have defaulted on their house payments is likely to disproportionately affect African-Americans who are overwhelmingly Democratic voters. More than 60 percent of all sub-prime loans — the most likely kind of loan to go into default — were made to African-Americans in Michigan, according to a report issued last year by the state’s Department of Labor and Economic Growth.


    Last edited by Cthogua; September 18th, 2008 at 04:00 PM.
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    I guess all in all...now isn't a good time to get buried in 60k of debt from student loans....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Quote View Post
    Well, a lot of people are saying that all this government intervention makes us closer to a socialist state. Maybe capitalism is fundamentally flawed in itself, and all of these problems were inevitable. You might say, they weren't inevitable, its just a whole lot of incompetent bankers borrowing too much money and a lot of flawed economic concepts and bad governing, but what if all of those things have to happen whenever you have capitalism?
    people have posited this for a long long time.

    personally i believe it ...its common sense...
    and the whole principle of regulation is based on this tenant.
    that left to its own devices capitalism will run aground...
    a will necessitate a large painful course correction.

    seems to be happening more frequently

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    kev ferrara is offline Registered User Level 17 Gladiator: Spartacus' Dimachaeri
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    America's a mixed grab bag of governing ideas. Cries of "socialism" are just the barking of binary minds.

    The idea that the poorer one is, the less responsible for one's actions one becomes, is a rather bad way to govern a society. Pandering like this tends to hurt a group rather than help it, and thus tends to result in widening income gaps. It is only through responsibility, which includes education, and hard work, which includes education, that the poor move up in the world. And it is the lack of same that causes "the other half" to trend downward.

    Everybody I know who has a house worked years for it. Some start with small houses then refurbish resell and continue until they are in a "good house." Some just wait a long long time until they are secure enough. My grandparents paid for their house with cash they had accumulated in 30 years of hard work.

    People who tell you "you can have it all right now if you vote for me!" are politicians. And if that kind of irresponsible rhetoric gets inacted into law, it is the responsible who end up paying for it, non-rhetorically. And the responsible know this, and they immediately begin figuring out a way not to get caught holding the bag for some Pop Politician's self-glorifying vote-insuring Robin Hood fantasy.

    Which again reminds me of that comedian (Pat Paulson?) I read about who ran for mayor of San Francisco in the 60s. His platform was "Anything you want!"

    Oh god. Did I just talk politics.

    Sorry.

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    pat paulson couldn't be more relevant!
    this one is right on

    http://video.google.com/videosearch?...um=4&ct=title#






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    Quote Originally Posted by kev ferrara View Post
    The idea that the poorer one is, the less responsible for one's actions one becomes, is a rather bad way to govern a society. Pandering like this tends to hurt a group rather than help it, and thus tends to result in widening income gaps. It is only through responsibility, which includes education, and hard work, which includes education, that the poor move up in the world. And it is the lack of same that causes "the other half" to trend downward.
    I agree, to a certain extent, but also running a society on the blind assumption that everyone has the same opportunities is inviting just as much abuse. I assume what you're talking about in the pandering to the idea that the poor are less responsible is state welfare programs, and really anything that supports poor people off the state in anyway. How is the working class supposed to become educated then if there is no support to do so and the average cost of sending a kid to college costs as much as a house? Never mind the decrepit state of public education in poorer areas. How is this education supposed to happen? The concept that the poor can be, enmass, brought up out of poverty by their own will to not be poor anymore is ridiculous...Who's going to work in a coal mine if they don't have to? Who's going to pick fruit all day if they don't have to? There HAS to be poor people in order for capitalism to work...in order for someone to make money someone has to get fucked

    I'm not really trying to be combative here. I'm really just curious as to what the model is in which poor people become responsible, educated, and immune to predatory marketing without the help/pandering from the state.

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    yeah but i've heard that the country isn't projected to right itself for another decade till we are back in the black.


    who knows what to make of these projections though....taken with a grain of salt.

    but the theory is sound...that every bubble burst cascades slowly every 2-3 years into an other bubble (dot com- slowly creating an entrepreneurial housing frenzy, etc) and inevitable burst as the investment class
    sees these downfalls as opportunities (i.e. cleaning up on foreclosures ) creating a new bubble wich soon bursts...its apparently a cycle that is accelerating and snowballing unchecked.

    leading the doomsayers to conclude that a biggy is on its way,
    projected to last over a decade....so they say.


    time will tell.


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    Well yeah, it was something that has been going on with Japan: http://efinancedirectory.com/article...damentals.html people should have realized it was going to be the same in the US, and a good guide to any economic market really.

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    Raffi helps takes my worries away from the overly sensational media.


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    kev ferrara is offline Registered User Level 17 Gladiator: Spartacus' Dimachaeri
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cthogua View Post
    I agree, to a certain extent, but also running a society on the blind assumption that everyone has the same opportunities is inviting just as much abuse. I assume what you're talking about in the pandering to the idea that the poor are less responsible is state welfare programs, and really anything that supports poor people off the state in anyway. How is the working class supposed to become educated then if there is no support to do so and the average cost of sending a kid to college costs as much as a house? Never mind the decrepit state of public education in poorer areas. How is this education supposed to happen? The concept that the poor can be, enmass, brought up out of poverty by their own will to not be poor anymore is ridiculous...Who's going to work in a coal mine if they don't have to? Who's going to pick fruit all day if they don't have to? There HAS to be poor people in order for capitalism to work...in order for someone to make money someone has to get fucked

    I'm not really trying to be combative here. I'm really just curious as to what the model is in which poor people become responsible, educated, and immune to predatory marketing without the help/pandering from the state.
    Cthogua, I don't quite know how to respond to you except by pointing out that millions and millions of people have left poverty through hard work. That includes every one of my relatives who came to the lower east side between 1900 and 1937 and worked godawful jobs that I can't imagine. My great grandfather fell off a skyscraper he was working on and was in a coma for 3 weeks. When he woke up, he moved upstate and started a farm with his own two hands raising 7 children in the process. The values of these people were rock solid and had little to do with their own comfort and everything to do with the future of their family. There are Subcontinent Indians, Koreans and Mexicans who are doing the same thing now in this country. The commonality between them all is a lack of cynicism, a lack of self-destruction, a willingness to sacrifice for the future, a willingness to police their neighborhoods themselves, and a commitment to the future of their families and themselves which includes policing the education of their children themselves. This education is not necessarily for some white collar job.

    Self-preciousness, on the other hand, leads to utter narcissism and a belief only in the here and now. Momentary pleasures, pursued diligently day in and day out, result in absolutely nothing in the long term except poverty and self-hatred.

    This is just my opinion however, and I wouldn't insist on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
    ... and then Canada will buy you out, everyone will be happy.
    Dibs on California, kthxbai

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arshes Nei View Post
    Is wanting to own a home greedy? NO because that's not the argument.
    I want a lot of things. I'd love a cintiq, my own art studio, an Acura Integra, a home and the list goes on and on.

    Is not doing the math and buying crap you can't afford such as a home greedy? - YES there has to be some accountability. Being poor is not an excuse.

    I do not buy the above things because I couldn't afford it, and I don't believe I should take a loan out on stuff I know I can't pay back. But see, that's why I do the math.
    The problem with predatory lending is that they convince you that you *can* afford it. I'm one of those, I have a house half in my name in Ohio (left it with my ex fiancee and he's miraculously not bankrupt yet - but close...). We were looking for much cheaper homes and checked out some developers, they sold us on a house that was only affordable because they have a trick of buying down your interest for the first couple years. So the payment they tell you you'll be making is going to go up, and it went up a lot more than they said it would. And not everyone can handle it. Obviously. Now my credit looks awful because I have this house in my name saying i owe on it but my ex pays it all, and if we took my name off it he'd lose it because it looks like he can't afford it, but he's working 2 jobs and eating ramen to keep it. Hooray, cutthroat capitalism!

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    Arshes Nei is offline Registered User Level 17 Gladiator: Spartacus' Dimachaeri
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    Quote Originally Posted by nonie View Post
    The problem with predatory lending is that they convince you that you *can* afford it. I'm one of those, I have a house half in my name in Ohio (left it with my ex fiancee and he's miraculously not bankrupt yet - but close...). We were looking for much cheaper homes and checked out some developers, they sold us on a house that was only affordable because they have a trick of buying down your interest for the first couple years. So the payment they tell you you'll be making is going to go up, and it went up a lot more than they said it would. And not everyone can handle it. Obviously. Now my credit looks awful because I have this house in my name saying i owe on it but my ex pays it all, and if we took my name off it he'd lose it because it looks like he can't afford it, but he's working 2 jobs and eating ramen to keep it. Hooray, cutthroat capitalism!
    So you're saying you went into an ARM? I'm sorry but I was told long ago that's a no no. Doesn't matter if some lender could convince me otherwise. A lot of sellers try to get me to buy stuff and convince me I can get it if I do such and such. As a buyer it's for me to make that decision, and keep in mind they're doing their job with their best interests at heart.

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    I'd just like to thank you all for educating me in this delicate matter. As a highschooler in northern europe, I don't know much about economy - especially not USA's.

    Now I know a bit more.

    Another thing that also came to mind.. and now we're talking conspiracy theories.. anyone seen Zeitgeist the movie? if not, you should. Google is your friend.

    Anyhow, in the movie they present a conspiracy revolving the crash in the 30's .. Now, I'm toying with the idea of the same thing happening again - conspiracy wise.. I don't think it'll be as harsh as it was then. But I do like the idea that the same masterminds behind the 30's are behind this.. in the end it'll lead to one single government ruling the entire planet with iron hand

    but probably it's all bullshit. To quote the Joker - "People don't panic when things go 'according to plan'. If I tell the press that a gang-banger will get shot, or a bus of soldiers will get blown up, nobody panics. Because it's all part of the plan."


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